Carbon dioxide emissions in China and the European Union are projected to fall this year, while those in India and the United States are likely to rise, according to new research.
The Global Carbon Budget 2022 report is set to launch on Friday (Nov 11) at the United Nations COP27 climate talks in Egypt, where the host wants to focus on the issue of compensation for losses from climate-related disasters from the main emitters.
Island nations at risk of disappearing because of rising sea levels, have said that highly polluting emerging economies, including China and India , should pay into a compensation fund to help countries rebuild after such events – the first time the two nations have been lumped together with the West’s major polluters.
Although the report’s different projections for the world’s four biggest polluters could have some impact on the negotiations, environmental analysts said they were unlikely to have a significant impact on the main agenda in Egypt.
The study, based on energy statistics and cement production data up to October, said global emissions were likely to be slightly above pre-pandemic levels this year.
As the world’s two biggest polluters, China and the US are key to reaching a global agreement on limiting the rise in global temperatures.
US President Joe Biden will be attending the summit along with other senior US officials, and is expected to use the occasion to pressure China on climate issues.
Yang Fuqiang, a senior adviser at Peking University’s Institute of Energy who was not involved in the report, said the drop in China’s carbon emissions this year – which were attributed to the impact of ongoing Covid lockdowns – was likely to be short-term and the country was expected to produce more carbon dioxide in the next two to three years.
China has set a target of reaching peak emissions by 2030 as part of its goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2060.
Meanwhile, US emissions peaked in 2005 and are expected to continue on a downwards trend, Yang said, despite this year’s spike, which was attributed to a post-Covid economic rebound.
“The report may not have a big impact on the COP27 negotiations as the changes in emissions are a short-term phenomenon.”
The report was collected by a team of researchers from 18 countries, who projected global fossil emissions would rise 1 per cent to 36.6 billion tonnes of CO2 this year, mainly driven by oil use, compared with 36.3 billion tonnes in 2019.
“If current emissions levels persist, there is a 50 per cent chance that warming of 1.5 degrees [Celsius] will be exceeded in nine years,” the 105 scientists warned – referring to the target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees relative to pre-industrial levels enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
There is “no sign of the decrease that is urgently needed to tackle climate change,” the researchers from 18 countries said.
Lead author Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate science professor at the University of Exeter in Britain, said “leaders meeting at COP27 will have to take meaningful action if we are to have any chance of limiting global warming close to 1.5 degrees Celsius”.
To reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 would require a decrease of about 1.4 billion tonnes of CO2 each year, a level similar to the fall in 2020 because of extensive Covid-19 lockdowns, the team said.
In 2022, China is expected to be responsible for 32 per cent of the world’s fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, followed by the United States with 14 per cent. The 27 EU member countries and India both account for 8 per cent.
According to the Global Carbon Project’s forecast, China and the European Union will see their emissions this year drop by 0.9 and 0.8 respectively, while India’s will rise by 6 per cent and those from the US by 1.5 per cent.
The project’s executive director Pep Canadell said China’s estimated decline is small yet “very significant”.
“We haven’t seen China’s emissions going down – not common or not at all during the history – just very very few times. This is one,” he said.
But Canadell expects emissions from China to return to growth over the coming years, before stabilising and eventually declining.
“As a major exporter it is going to feel the pain of a slowing economy next year,” he said, referring to World Bank forecasts.
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced two years ago that China will aim to peak national emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. In April last year, he said coal consumption would be strictly controlled until 2025, after which it would gradually be reduced.
In 2022, China’s coal emissions are projected to rise by 0.1 per cent, while oil emissions will drop by 2.8 per cent, natural gas by 1.1 per cent and cement by 7 per cent.
The slowdown in construction has reduced the demand for cement, which emits a large amount of carbon dioxide during the manufacturing process, the researchers said.
Yang echoed this, saying: “One reason is China’s economic rebound last year when the average two-year GDP growth [for2020 and 2021] reached 5.1 per cent. CO2 emissions increased by 2.4-2.6 per cent in 2021, so the base was high.”
Meanwhile, Covid-related restrictions have hit the economy and the increase in import and export volumes is not as high as in previous years – all of which hit energy consumption.
“China’s coal consumption in 2022 is expected to remain flat compared with last year and oil and gas consumption is set to drop, so it’s possible CO2 emissions remain flat or drop by 0.5-0.9 per cent,” he said.
Meanwhile in the US, President Joe Biden has pledged to reduce carbon emissions to 50-52 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030 as part of a target of reaching net-zero by 2050.
However, Yang said “C02 emissions in the US will drop” but it would be difficult to achieve the 2030 target.
“Coal still accounts for a significant proportion of the US energy sector and renewable energy is not developing as fast as people think. Oil consumption in the transport sector is growing slowly,” he said.
Frank Jotzo, director of the centre for climate and energy policy at The Australian National University, said “we may well expect a strong moderation of emissions growth in China” when construction peaks.
“[There’s a] big question mark over big infrastructure investment in China and to what extent that will resume,” he said. “Much of the very steep emissions growth that we’ve seen in China in the last 20 years is related to the build-up of cities, high-rise buildings, train lines, model ways, etc.”
Jan Ivar Korsbakken, a senior researcher at Norway-based Centre for International Climate Research and co-author of the report, said emissions in China “will almost certainly go down this year” because of lockdowns, a collapse in the construction sector and economic headwinds.
He added that “renewable energy continued to grow, with wind and solar power making up more than 10 per cent of total electricity generation for the first time.”
“A shortfall in hydropower after the massive drought this summer and stronger industrial growth in the past few months have pushed coal consumption up again a little in the autumn, but probably not enough to stop overall CO2 emissions from falling,” he said.
This article was first published in Asia One . All contents and images are copyright to their respective owners and sources.
