Friendly gestures at the first in-person meeting between the Chinese and US leaders might prompt more restraint over the South China Sea, but tensions would persist, observers said.
Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden met on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Bali on Monday, their first face-to-face talks since Biden took office in January 2021.
The three-hour meeting reportedly featured blunt exchanges on thorny issues such as Taiwan, human rights, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, trade practices and food security.
Before their talks, the two leaders shook hands warmly as they smiled for the cameras in front of their national flags, with Biden putting his hand on Xi’s back at one point.
However, the main points of conflict remain, according to Malcolm Davis, a senior security analyst at the Canberra-based Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
“I think the key points of contention in the relationship haven’t gone away, and the South China Sea and the Taiwan issue
Timothy Heath, a senior international defence researcher at the Rand Corporation, said the two countries were likely to exercise more restraint on the South China Sea, even though behaviours that antagonise the other side would continue.
“China and the United States have expressed a willingness to ease tensions, but there was no agreement on the most divisive issues. Overall, however, the efforts to reduce tensions should add some stability in the South China Sea and generally reduce the risk of a crisis, at least for the short term,” Heath said.
China has built seven artificial islands in the South China Sea, creating more than 1,000 hectares (2,470 acres) of new land since 2013, according to the CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. Such moves have heightened concerns among rival South China Sea claimants, such as Vietnam and the Philippines.
Days after the Xi-Biden meeting, US Vice-President Kamala Harris arrived in Asia for a visit to Thailand and the Philippines. The trip includes a stopover at Palawan next week, which would make her the highest-ranking US official ever to visit the southern Philippine island.
Palawan, on the eastern edge of the South China Sea, sits close to the Spratlys, parts of which are claimed by China, the Philippines , Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan. It offers a valuable perch from where to monitor activity in the vast waterway, including China’s newly built outposts.
Earlier this month, retired Chinese major general Yao Yunzhu, an academic committee member at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, said worsening relations between China and the US were raising the risks of a maritime conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.
“The confrontation in Sino-US relations continues to rise, so it is difficult to ignore the possibility of a maritime military conflict,” Yao said.
This article was first published in Asia One . All contents and images are copyright to their respective owners and sources.
